Moving from Reluctant Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”