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At first, Trump seemed to take a strong position regarding Ukraine. After making threats of "serious ramifications" during the summer if Russia's president persisted obstructing peace discussions, he ultimately introduced substantial sanctions on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This decision substantially affected the Russian leader's capability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

Yet, via his latest comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly drafted by both nations' officials without Ukrainian or EU input, he has clearly returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Rewarding Invasion

This initiative would effectively favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while putting the country's democracy in peril. Despite bold declarations that "Ukraine's independence will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative in reality weaken that very independence. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his real-estate background, Trump seems to view the war as a simple border issue, as if ceding Putin a portion of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the leader. Yet, Putin's war is not simply about dominating a charred area of deindustrialized area in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to destroy it so it no longer functions as an appealing model for the Russia's population of the responsible governance that his increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Land Giveaways

While maintaining in place the currently divided regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would compel Ukraine to abandon the entire Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding Russia with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a lengthy period of warfare, this surrender would make Ukraine's military defenses critically undermined.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that represent a essential obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, giving Russian forces a open path to Kyiv should he subsequently decide to resume the conflict.

Military Reductions

Then, in a step that would facilitate additional fighting more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would require the nation to cut the numbers of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Importantly, the plan sets no such restrictions on Russia's military.

Apparently as a gesture to Russia's attempts to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected administration as extremists, the proposal states: "All extremist doctrine and actions must be rejected and forbidden." Seemingly to underscore this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in 100 days" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump places no requirement that Putin risk his authoritarian rule by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Security Assurances

Admittedly, the plan makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "establish in regulation its stance of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". But given that Putin has breached similar accords in the past – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to respect the nation's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a handback of occupied territory in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – why should the international community have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on international defense commitments. While the plan promises a "strong joint military response" in case the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the particulars range from fuzzy to concerning. The plan would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also preclude alliance nations from stationing troops on the nation's land, effectively blocking the reassurance force, likely commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Russia from replenishing his diminished military, rearming, and attacking again.

Global Reaction

Another supplementary accord apparently would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and continuous military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a defense action. Yet in contrast to a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable deterrent against future Russian aggression – the credibility of the side agreement would rely on the willingness of alliance members, like Trump, to act with force to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not